Each person repeatedly in his professional activities or everyday life raises the question: “What consequences can a certain activity entail? Will an event take place? How to make a forecast of its occurrence? . Oddly enough, but the usual mathematical patterns and rules can often help us in such matters. This article will consider what a pattern is, what they are, how they can be used.
Forecasting as a result of a pattern
The very fact of a prediction or prediction is not a reason to believe that a certain individual has extrasensory abilities. What does it mean? It is possible to predict a certain event only using a pattern. This is the basis of the prediction. Using the rest of the theory of probability, the laws of large numbers, you can make the forecast accuracy as high as possible. But withoutusing a pattern is impossible.
Types of patterns
In general, regularity is a certain interconnection of certain phenomena or procedures repeating from one cycle to the next cycle, with the help of which the formation of stages and forms of development of the entire system of nature, society, technologies is possible. Without these repetitions, the existence of just such a system would be impossible. Without patterns, the system will not only be different, but also unstable, enduring constant chaotic changes in all processes. There are two types of regularities: dynamic and statistical. A dynamic pattern is similar causal relationships. In other words, this is a type of causal relationship, as well as a permanent relationship, when specific indicators of the system in each specific case can determine the state of this system in the future. Such a pattern is inherent in all those phenomena that are completely controlled by physical, chemical, biological and mathematical laws.
Roughly speaking, the dynamic pattern allows you to determine certain patterns of development of simple phenomena. Due to the fact that all simple phenomena obey the laws of physics, chemistry, thermodynamics, biology, under the same conditions, the same phenomenon will naturally repeat itself.
What is a regularity in statics? This is such a pattern that manifests itself in the mass of homogeneous phenomena when summarizing the data of the statistical population andbased on the law of large numbers. This is a kind of causal relationship in which it is impossible to say something specific about the state of the system in the future. One can only guess the degree of probability with which this or that case of regularity can occur.
This pattern is inherent in social phenomena. In this case, human actions play an important role. The state of the individual, his subsequent actions after a certain impact can not always be predicted. A person is not a machine, so the pattern of determining human behavior is somewhat different from predicting the patterns of ordinary and simple phenomena.
Pattern and dynamics
To understand in more detail what a regularity is, it is necessary to study the dynamics a little. In general, the dynamics of social phenomena is the result of the interaction of various causes and conditions of both social and natural determining nature. When studying any pattern, they also use the laws of dynamics and do the following:
- Characteristics that are inherent in the phenomenon in different periods of time.
- Use of statistical surveillance systems.
- Finding the "trend" indicator (the main trend in the development of the system).
- Changes in system indicators at microlevels (periodic fluctuations).
- Extrapolation and forecasting
Extrapolation and study of patterns
No matter how scary this concept may sound, in fact, everything is extremely simple. This concept is also closely related to regularity. What is extrapolation? This is an analysis of the obtained regularities of phenomena and their imposition on the boundary-permissible point of time in the future. This is what forecasting is, only in more scientific terms.
Extrapolation is impossible without the use of regularities. And patterns are not needed without further extrapolation.
