In the vastness of the Soviet Union, the words "demography" and "statistics" have long been perceived as synonymous. This is probably why the anecdote about the three types of lies (lies, vile lies and statistics) could be heard about demographic studies. Literally, Demography is translated from Greek as “description of the people”, but the Latin word status (from which the word statistics is derived) is “state of affairs”. It is not difficult to see that these are completely different words both in meaning and in origin. What can demographic research reveal?
Demographic aging of the planet's population
Practical demography studies the situation in selected areas, analyzes directions and forming trends on the scale of the planet and individual states. Different social strata of the population and age groups are being studied. Based on the research results, forecast indicators appear for 1, 5, 10, sometimes even 50 years ahead, describing probable scenario situations in the future.
Forecasts of various statistical organizations indicate inexorable growthnumber of people over 65 worldwide. Whether this is good or bad, there are different opinions. The possibility of such a process was launched by the revolution of the “culture of everyday life and production”: the availability of education, relative prosperity, the development of medicine, the improvement of the sanitary and epidemiological situation, and working conditions at enterprises. All of the above contributes to the lengthening of human life, which, in turn, is one of the main factors in the trend of population aging in the world.
Main categories and indicators of population studies
Practically all studies go through the stages of data collection, their description and theoretical interpretation of the results. Demographic studies are no exception. The main source of data is the population census, but micro-censuses and selective studies are also carried out to highlight certain social, economic, political factors that affect the situation in the region. As a result, the studies describe the size of the population and its structure: age, gender, nationality, religion and language, professional and educational. Attention is paid to natural population growth and migration, the level of income of certain groups and individuals. All descriptions are carried out with the aim of compiling an accurate theory that takes into account the largest number of factors of influence, based on which, in the future, hypotheses are put forward for the development and formation of society.
Demography as a science is conditionally divided into formal, analytical, historical,sociological, military.
- Formal demography studies the quantitative component of all processes and their impact on population growth or decline.
- Analytical - studies the relationship and influence of patterns, causes and effects of society in specific conditions. The study is carried out at the level of mathematical methods, as well as with the help of modeling and forecasting. Analytical demography examines the impact of the socio-economic, political, cultural climate in the region on different age groups of the population. It is not surprising that demographers have been talking about the emergence of the problem of population aging in connection with the current socio-economic situation for more than a decade.
- Historical demography studies the retrospective of social and other phenomena in connection with the growth or decline of the population in the studied regions. Based on the collected and processed research over a fairly long period (over decades), theoretical generalizations are put forward and established historical patterns are formulated. Thanks to them, it became possible to predict the aging of the world's population.
- The mutual influence of demography and sociology studies social demography. It differs from the previous form by the study of phenomena at the micro level (family, close relatives, personality). Explores social demography, social attitudes, norms, behavior, which affects research methods: interviews, tests, surveys, etc.
- Military demography examines the different factors that affect the state of military affairs and the economy. To this sectioninclude the study of the possibilities of mobilizing the country's population during armed conflicts, possible losses among the civilian population in the form of casu alties and migration, and the consequences of military operations for the region. This section of demography is closely related to military science.
Population, reproduction and reproductive attitudes are the main categories studied by the science in question. The topic of population aging is touched upon in connection with the study of the age and sex composition of the inhabitants of the region. In theory, it is customary to distinguish three types: primitive, stationary, and regressive (they practically do not occur in their pure form).
- The first type is characterized by high birth and death rates. It can be observed in the tribes of Africa, where children are not registered until they reach the age of ten (due to high infant mortality).
- The second type, as opposed to the first, is observed with low birth and death rates. Such a situation can be observed in developed countries and, according to experts, in a post-industrial society.
- The third, regressive type is characterized by high mortality and low birth rates (observed during hostilities in the country).
The term demographic aging is considered as the ratio of three age groups of the inhabitants of the region: persons under 15 years old, working population, people over 60-65 years old. The predominance of the latter group over the first by 10-15% is called the demographic aging of the population. Theoretically, a model of the optimal composition of the population has been developedwhere the young disabled population occupies 20%, workers - 65%, disabled people of retirement age 15%. This scheme is considered ideal in connection with the distribution of the economic burden on the working population (based on 1000 workers 500 disabled). Therefore, other ratios are usually considered as creating an excessive load, leading to the collapse of the country's economy.
Peculiarities of the demographic situation in Europe
Population aging in developed countries has been happening over the past fifty years. Many factors influence this trend:
- improving he alth care;
- increased life expectancy;
- declining birth rate;
- economic and socio-political situation in the country.
There is a favorable situation for the emergence of the so-called silver economy. Its essence is to meet the needs of older people in services, goods and maintaining the quality of life through the structure and mechanisms of the economic model. One of the components of the Silver Economy is, in particular, inclusion - a term often used recently in the post-Soviet space, but ruthlessly taken out of context and translated to a completely different part of the population.
European countries use different methods and ways to relieve the burden on the pension fund:
- naturally, the retirement age was raised (in the future it is planned to increase the retirement age to 70years);
- in most states, the issue of minimum work experience and the minimum number of paid contributions to the pension fund is being considered;
- States are trying to relieve the burden on pension funds with the help of private savings deposits for pensioners, which has already released, according to some estimates, up to 2% of GDP (currently, European countries spend about 15% of GDP to support pension funds);
- introduced a program of "active aging" in various fields, which is designed to help people stay longer in the labor market and retire later;
- Some countries are testing part-time work for retirees: people work flexible hours and receive a part-time salary and partly a pension (polls show that this form of work is attractive to 68% of older people in Europe).
It is worth noting that active population aging programs are popular with the elderly and are being implemented in almost all regions of Europe. The main problem of the countries of the European zone is not aging, but a decrease in the birth rate, which is supported by such activities as sexual education from kindergarten age, support and promotion of homosexuality, the famous “child-free” philosophy, etc. However, all of the above are not considered as problematic phenomena with consequences.
Demographic dynamics in Russia
In Russia, population aging is predicted by 2020, however, today the ratio of able-bodied citizens anddependents is more than optimistic (under 15 years old - 15.2%, up to 65 years old - 71.8%, after 65 - 13%). An alarming signal can be the annual decline in the birth rate and the high mortality rate (in quantitative ratio with newborns). Natural population growth has been negative for several years now. The aging of the population in Russia, one might say, is at its initial stage, but the speed of this process is predicted with a low degree of probability.
Demographic situation in Southeast Asia
By 2030, a huge jump in the aging of the population of the countries of Southeast Asia is predicted. Already today, the palm in this statistical scale belongs to Japan. China's long-term policy of "one family - one child" also does not have the best effect on the age and gender composition of the nation. Recent relaxations in the family policy of the Celestial Empire will not bear fruit soon. Today, there is a strong disproportion in the number of men and women (in the direction of increasing the number of men). This was preceded by a policy without a state pension system (the son had to ensure the old age of the parents, which led to a large number of abortions if the parents knew the gender of the unborn child (girl)).
The impact of political and economic changes on the demographic situation of the regions
The above examples serve as a vivid illustration of the influence of the political, economic, territorial situation on the demographic composition of the region's population. mechanical containmentPopulation growth, as China's practice shows, is not capable of leading a society to prosperity and transition to a post-industrial society, but it creates problems, the solution of which may take a single decade, and possibly require radical measures. At the same time, the “social promiscuity” of the developed countries of Europe leads states to the same denominator, with the difference that the “young old people” of the European continent have greater freedom in choosing the trajectory of their life path.
Influence on the composition of the population of climate, natural and man-made disasters, medical care
Against the backdrop of a developed medical industry, scientific discoveries, the aging of the population in developed countries does not look like a fatal factor in the collapse of the economy. However, such “unplanned events” as climate change, natural and man-made disasters always make their adjustments.
If we consider man-made disasters, they are often caused by climate change and natural disasters (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, fires, abnormal heat, etc.). However, the "human factor" is leading. As an example of a man-made disaster caused by a natural cataclysm, one can cite the accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant, the breach of the Bantiao dam in 1975 (China). The accident on the Deepwater Horizon platform (Gulf of Mexico) affected a large part of the world's population (although it is not possible to know which factor was decisive, human or natural, today).
Allcatastrophes "harvest" two crops - instant and long-term. The momentary is expressed in economic damage, the victims of the cataclysm, but the long-term (sometimes exceeds the instant) is expressed in the social, economic, political (even religious) preferences of society. A colorful confirmation of these words can serve as the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, the long-term "collection" of which continues to this day.
Migration policy of European countries
Many studies suggest that the aging of the population is a marker of the well-being of the state, and the reduction in the birth rate is dictated by the increase in life expectancy and the principle of expediency. However, despite these statements, Europe regularly renews its population due to migrants. Migration policy requires a delicate and controlled conduct, which cannot be said about the latest wave of "invasion of aliens" on the lands of the European Union. Europeans use a rotational model, which implies the return of migrants to their homeland when they reach retirement age. Recent events illustrate the impossibility of assimilation of the arriving population, and their voluntary return looks unlikely.
Migration policy of the countries of the former USSR
In the post-Soviet space, everything looks a little different. The so-called labor migration is developing at full speed (work on a rotational basis with the absence of an employee on the territory of the house for 10-11 months). In fact, workers come home as a resort. The working shift takes place mainly in cities with a million population, at construction sites, factories,mining industry with the possibility of further relocation closer to the place of work. The difference between this migration policy and the European one is that it serves to attract highly qualified specialists (as in the United States) and the corresponding workforce. The countries of the post-Soviet space, due to economic and political conditions, do not see the need to invite low-skilled workers and simply dependents, especially since unemployment benefits in some regions barely reach $20 a month.
China's migration policy
PRC is faced with the need to expand the territory, which resulted in the lease of land from neighboring states. The government encourages the migration of the population to other countries and marriages with representatives of other states, since the number of women in the republic itself is much less than the male population. It is clear that such a migration does not imply a return to China at the age of 65. The Chinese, settling in distant countries, live separately, according to their own laws, which allows us to conclude that they are unwilling to accept the culture and traditions of the countries in which they live, as well as methodical expansion, the consequences of which may be worse than the European migration crisis.
Modern demographic development options
In fact, the aging of the country's population against the background of a stable birth rate (at the rate of 2 children per woman) indicates an increase in the standard of living, its comfort, one might say, sufficient predictability. Dangerous canconsider the trend when the birth rate increases annually, but the population decreases at the same rate. There are a lot of options for the formation of a demographic situation, they differ only in the number of factors taken into account in their compilation. However, one thing is indisputable - the population of the earth will have to reconsider their attitude to the age period of a person in the range of 64-100 years and learn to accept the "gifts of maturity" and experience.
