Science-based forecasting is an important tool of modern management. It is used both for strategic planning of the development of individual enterprises and for the development of long-term socio-economic programs at the state level. The structure and steps of this process are closely related to the methodology and the adopted model.
Definition
Forecasting is a system of theoretically substantiated ideas about the possible future states of an object and about the directions of its development. This concept is similar to the term hypothesis, but, unlike the latter, it is based on quantitative indicators and has greater reliability. The common feature of these two concepts is that they explore an object or process that does not yet exist.
Applied forecasting techniques were actively developed in the 70s. XX century, and the boom of their use abroad continues to this day. This is mainly due to a new direction in research - a global problem, the main task of which is to solve the world's resource,demographic and environmental issues.
Forecasting is a science that has a close relationship with statistics and its analytical methods. The achievements of mathematics, natural and other sciences are widely used in the analysis.
Forecasting and planning complement each other in various ways. In most cases, a forecast is developed before a plan is created. He can also follow the plan - to determine the possible consequences. In large-scale studies (at the state or regional level), the forecast can act as the plan itself.
Goals
The main task of forecasting is to identify effective ways to manage socio-economic processes in society or the economic and technical development of an enterprise.
The methodological foundations for achieving such goals are as follows:
- analysis of trends in the development of the economy and technology;
- anticipating different options;
- comparison of current trends and set goals;
- assessment of the possible consequences of economic decisions.
Forecast methods
Forecasting is carried out according to a certain methodology, which is understood as a system of indicators and approaches to the object under study, the logic of research. Other parameters also depend on which method is chosen - how many forecasting stages will be carried out and what will be their content.
Among the huge number of forecasting methods, you canhighlight the following main groups:
1. Individual Peer Reviews:
- Interview - information is obtained during the conversation (formalized and non-formalized, preparatory and independent, directed and non-directed).
- Questionnaire survey (individual, group, mass, face-to-face and correspondence survey).
- Development of a predictive scenario (used in the areas of management).
- Analytical method - building a tree of goals (for assessing hierarchical or structural processes).
2. Collective peer review based on consensus among a group of experts:
- meetings;
- "round tables";
- "Delphi";
- brainstorming;
- court method.
3. Formalized methods based on the use of mathematical evaluation methods:
- extrapolation;
- mathematical modeling;
- morphological method and others.
4. Complex techniques that combine several of the above:
- "double tree" (used for basic research and R&D);
- predictive graph;
- Pattern and others.
A correctly chosen forecasting method significantly affects its errors. For example, strategic planning does not use the method of extrapolation (foresight beyond experimental data or the distribution of properties from one subject area to another).
Steps
Sequence of forecasting steps in generalcase is the work carried out according to the following scheme:
- Preparation.
- Analysis of internal and external conditions in retrospect.
- Developing options for the development of events along an alternative path.
- Expertise.
- Selection of a suitable model.
- Her appreciation.
- Analysis of the quality of the expertise (a priori and a posteriori).
- Implementation of predictive developments, their control and adjustment (if necessary).
The following is a description of the main stages of forecasting and their characteristics.
Preparatory stage
At the first stage, the following questions are solved:
- Pre-forecast orientation (formulation of the object of study, problem statement, definition of goals and objectives, primary modeling, formulation of working hypotheses).
- Informational and organizational preparation.
- Formulation of the task for the forecast.
- Preparation of computer support.
At the staging stage of forecasting, the performers who must carry out the forecast are also determined. This group may consist of competent employees responsible for organizational work and information support, and also includes an expert commission.
The following points are documented:
- forecast decision;
- composition of working commissions;
- work schedule;
- analytical review on the problem under study;
- contracts or other agreements with specialists involved in forecasting.
Analysis
At the second, analytical stage of forecasting, the following types of work are carried out:
- research of information about the object in retrospect;
- separation of qualitative and quantitative indicators;
- analysis of internal conditions (in relation to an enterprise, this can be: its organizational structure, technologies, personnel, production culture and other quality parameters);
- study and assessment of external conditions (interaction with business partners, suppliers, competitors and consumers, the general state of the economy and society).
In the process of analysis, the current state of the object is diagnosed and the trends of its further development are determined, the main problems and contradictions are identified.
Alternative options
The stage of identifying other, most probable options for the development of an object is one of the key stages of forecasting. The accuracy of the forecast and, accordingly, the effectiveness of decisions made on its basis depends on the correctness of their determination.
At this stage, the following work is being done:
- developing a list of alternative development options;
- exclusion of those processes that in a given period have a probability of implementation below the threshold value;
- detailed study of each additional option.
Expertise
Based on the available information and previous analysis, an expertstudy of an object, process or situation. The result of this forecasting stage is a reasonable conclusion and determination of scenarios according to which development will be most likely.
Examination can be carried out by various methods:
- interviewing;
- questionnaire;
- one-time or multi-round survey of experts;
- anonymous or open exchange of information and other ways.
Model selection
A forecasting model is a simplified description of an object or process under study, which allows you to obtain the necessary information about its future state, directions for achieving such a state, and about the interconnections of individual elements of the system. It is chosen based on the research method.
In economics, there are several types of such models:
- functional, describing the operation of the main components;
- models characterized by methods of economic physics (determination of mathematical relationships between various variables of the production process);
- expert (special formulas for processing expert assessments);
- economic, based on determining the dependencies between the economic indicators of the predicted system;
- procedural (describes managerial interactions and their order).
There are also other model classifications:
- According to the aspects reflected in them - industrial and social.
- Models designed to describe income,consumption, demographic processes.
- Economic models of various levels (long-term for forecasting economic development, intersectoral, sectoral, production).
In predictive models, the following forms of describing phenomena are distinguished:
- text;
- graphic (extrapolation methods);
- network (graphs);
- building flowcharts;
- matrix (tables);
- analytical (formulas).
The model is formed using methods such as:
- phenomenological (direct study and observation of occurring phenomena);
- deductive (selection of details from the general model);
- inductive (generalization from particular phenomena).
After selecting the model, a forecast is made for certain periods. The results obtained are compared with currently known information.
Quality evaluation
The stage of forecast verification, or verification of its reliability, is carried out on the basis of previous experience (a posteriori) or independently of it (a priori). Quality assessment is done using the following criteria: accuracy (scatter of predictive trajectories), reliability (probability of the selected option), reliability (measure of process uncertainty). To assess the deviation of forecast criteria from their actual values, such a concept as forecast errors is used.
In the process of controlling, the results are also compared with other models, developmentrecommendations on the management of an object or process, if such an impact may have an impact on the development of events.
There are 2 methods for quality assessment:
- Differential, which uses clear criteria (determining the clarity of setting a forecast task, the timeliness of stage-by-stage work, the professional level of performers, the reliability of information sources).
- Integral (generalized estimate).
Key Factors
The following main factors influence the accuracy of the forecast:
- competence of the expert group;
- quality of prepared information;
- measurement accuracy of economic data;
- level of methods and procedures used in forecasting;
- correct choice of model;
- consistency of methodological approaches between different specialists.
Often large errors also arise due to the fact that the features of the conditions in which this model is applied are not taken into account.
Implementation
The last stage of forecasting is the implementation of the forecast and monitoring the progress of its implementation. If critical deviations are identified that can significantly affect the further development of events, the forecast is corrected.
The level of amending decisions can be different. If they are insignificant, then the adjustment is carried out by the analytical group, which is responsible for developing the forecast. In somecases, experts are involved in this work.
