Methods of criminological forecasting: types and their features

Science 2023

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Methods of criminological forecasting: types and their features
Methods of criminological forecasting: types and their features

There are various ways to collect and analyze data for crime and criminal justice research. The methodology of criminological research includes certain methods, techniques, means of collecting, processing, analyzing and evaluating information about crime. The causes of this social phenomenon, as well as the personality of the offender, are being studied. A number of criminological forecasting methods are used to combat crime.

peer review as a method

Best Predictive Models

Criminology develops both through the development of coherent and comprehensive theories about crime and its causes, and through the systematic collection and analysis of observations of the social world in relation to such theories. Such observations are usually referred to as data. A wide variety of data is used to help address crime problems.products of a number of research methods.

They are usually generated using data collection forms (eg structured interviews) and analyzed (eg correlation analysis). This is done within the framework of some broad research structure. The diversity of evidence is partly a reflection of the variety of issues under consideration and the many aspects of such problems that are being explored with different theoretical approaches. Any particular case of criminological research is a particular set between problem, theory and method, and the data that is used are the results of this set.


Key challenges for researchers are how best to arrive at useful predictive models, account for error costs, and evaluate non-linear relationships. This is a new area of ​​application for research. There are two types of criminological forecasts:

  • Short-term crime forecasting - requires forecasting data over space and time series, such as monthly crime rates in uniform square grid cells within a city. In this setup, it is critical to manage the problem of estimating small areas. Some form of grid cell data collection is needed to improve accuracy.
  • Long-term Crime Prediction - The long-term perspective draws on the vast and fascinating literature of criminology plus modeling approaches from the field of spatial econometrics. Prediction, traditional goalscience is a prerequisite for any effective crime prevention and control program. The patterns of crime in the long term depend on the nature of the local population and land use, which do not change rapidly over time.
methods of criminological forecasting

Estimation and forecasting methods

If we are to control criminal behavior, then first we must be able to predict it. Any forecasting method simply provides a way of summarizing past experience in the hope of finding useful guidance for future decisions. This problem is quite relevant, which explains the emergence of an extensive literature and a variety of methods for criminological forecasting.

Along with such research in various social problem areas, the solution of theoretical and technical issues in the field of forecasting has increased. It includes the study of logic in the study of personality, psychometric problems and role-playing methods in the evaluation of various treatments.

methods of criminological research

Crime is an integral social organism

The social organism is an ideological concept in which a society or social structure is seen as a "living organism". All elements of society have a function that maintains the stability and cohesion of this system. Crime as such is one of the products of the life and existence of society, acting as a full-fledgedsocial mechanism and is a socially mediated phenomenon that contains criminally dangerous consequences for society.

A characteristic feature of social life is the uneven and dynamic nature of the processes that take place in it. In this regard, it is necessary to predict in which direction certain events follow, what will help this or, conversely, counteract it. Criminological forecasting, using its methods, is designed to consider and investigate crime along with other criminological problems.

criminological characteristics of crimes

Criminal Research Methods

Crime as a social phenomenon has its own statistical patterns. Research methods include a range of qualitative and quantitative predictions of certain trends and patterns of crime. Criminology uses only those that are applicable in practice at this stage. Such methods of criminological forecasting include extrapolation, peer review and modeling.

expert assessment as a method of criminological forecasting


Extrapolation as a method of criminological forecasting is the dissemination of the findings that were obtained in the study of crime in the past and present. It also takes into account its future trends. Since crime and the phenomena associated with it,can be represented in a dynamic structural way (in absolute and relative terms), then the future will be predicted using the same quantitative units.

Prognostic conclusions can be divided depending on the types, groups of crimes, their causal components and the criminological characteristics of crimes. Extrapolation makes it possible to obtain probabilistic prognostic conclusions. This applies not only to the dynamics, but also to the structure of such a social phenomenon as crime. The accuracy of such forecasting is relative, but deviations are possible, since society is an open system.

Unexpected social transformations (wars, revolutions, riots) in society may turn out to be possible, which can radically change the criminological situation in the world. Extrapolation gives good results for short-term forecasts. As time increases, accuracy decreases.

types of criminological forecasts

Method of peer review

Expert evaluation as a method of criminological forecasting is an addition to extrapolation. It is presented in the form of comments from highly qualified professionals that help to establish the likely trends in crime and its causal basis. Expert judgment works well for medium to long term forecasting.

The main disadvantage of this method is the subjectivity of the assessment and informal nature. The right choice of candidates helps to increase the chances of success, their undeniablecompetence, the use of statistical and mathematical methods of generalization of expert assessments and their comparison with the results of objective methods of predicting crime.

extrapolation as a method


Such a method of criminological forecasting as modeling is the construction of mathematical models of crime. The model is an existing in reality or fictional image of certain objects or phenomena, which is used under certain conditions, is able to replace them. This method is quite promising and in demand in terms of research. There are 2 directions today, including modeling, which has the form of a multiple regression equation, and modeling in the form of a matrix.

extrapolation as a method of criminological forecasting

Individual Prediction

An important role in criminology is played by individual forecasting. This method is aimed at studying individual criminal behavior, it is at the stage of theoretical development and is applied in practice haphazardly. This is due to the difficulties of predicting the complex interaction of a particular individual, his social environment and certain life circumstances.

criminological forecasting

The human essence itself is complex in nature, which leads to difficulties in the methodology of knowing and predicting the behavior of a particular person. This method works wellin relation to those persons who were already related to the underworld. The main task of such forecasting is the selection of those candidates from a certain list with whom it is worth carrying out individual preventive work in order to prevent the commission of crimes or offenses.

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