There are many questions about artificial intelligence. This topic has long interested not only scientists, but also writers. Currently, cyberpunk has been developed - a direction that describes the development of artificial intelligence. If we talk about artificial intelligence (AI), then we refer to the field of computer science. Artificial intelligence is driven by machines, computers and mostly software. Machines imitate intellectual activity, which is why it is called artificial, a kind of cognitive function based on the environment, observations and learning process.
Key definitions
Artificial intelligence is a two-word term.
Artificial is not real and is kind of fake because it is simulated.
Intelligence is a complicated term. It can be defined in different ways: logic,understanding, self-awareness, learning, emotional knowledge, planning, creativity. People are intelligent because they can do all these things. We perceive our environment, learn from it, and take action based on what we have learned.
In this case we are talking about natural intelligence.
First mentioned
The history of the development of artificial intelligence is quite interesting and began about 100 years ago.
In 1920, Czech writer Karel Capek published the science fiction play Rossum's Universal Robots, also better known as R. U. R. It tells about a factory that creates artificial people called robots. These are living beings that can be called clones. At first they worked for humans, but then they started a rebellion that led to the extinction of the human race.
Artificial intelligence in literature and films is a broad topic. Čapek's example was meant to demonstrate the importance and impact of AI on research and society.
First developments
The first research is associated with the name of Alan Turing. He was the author of the Enigma code, an encryption machine used in Nazi Germany. His research led to the creation of the theory of computation.
Turing machine is an abstract machine that, despite the simplicity of the model, can build the logic of any algorithm. Discoveries in neuroscience, information theory and cybernetics, together with the research of Alan Turing, contributed to the development of the idea of the possibility of creating an electronicbrain.
A few years after World War II ended, Turing introduced his widely known Turing Test, which was an attempt to determine the intelligence of a machine. The idea of the test was that a computer is called intelligent if a machine (A) and a person (B) communicate in natural language, and the second person (C) cannot determine which of the communicators (A or B) is a machine.
The history of the development of artificial intelligence continued in 1956, when the first seminar on this topic was held, and with it the field of AI research was born. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University, MIT and IBM staff pioneered AI research.
If in the 1960s the mood of researchers was quite optimistic, then in subsequent years the process slowed down somewhat. In the mid-1970s, interest in AI waned markedly.
After the first attempt to develop AI (AI Winter), artificial intelligence "returned" in the form of so-called "expert systems".
Expert systems are programs that answer questions and solve problems in a particular area. They imitate an expert in a particular industry and solve problems according to existing rules.
After a series of financial setbacks at the turn of the 1990s, interest in AI fell again.
After many ups and downs, Deep Blue is the first chess computer to defeat world champion Garry Kasparov on May 11, 1997.
Over the past two decades, research in this area has expanded. In 2017In 2020, the AI development market (related to hardware and software) reached $8 billion, and research firm IDC (International Data Corporation) predicts it will reach $47 billion by 2020.
What is AI
The development of artificial intelligence is happening incredibly fast. While AI is often portrayed in science fiction as robots with human-like characteristics, it can actually encompass everything from search engine search algorithms to autonomous weapons.
Artificial intelligence is currently defined as a narrow AI as it is designed to perform a narrow task (like only face recognition or just searching the internet or driving a car). However, many researchers consider the creation of general AI (AGI) as a long-term goal. While a narrow AI can outperform humans on a specific task, such as playing chess or solving equations, AGI will outperform humans on almost every cognitive task.
Importance of security research
In the near term, the goal of maintaining the impact of AI on society stimulates research in many areas, including economic and legal disciplines, various technical problems related to verification, security and control. Of increasing importance is the aspect that the AI system does what the person wants: controls all mechanisms, from the car andaircraft to a pacemaker or power supply system. Another short-term goal is to prevent a destructive arms race in autonomous weapons.
In the long run, the important question is what happens if the search for general AI succeeds and the AI system outperforms humans at cognitive tasks.
As I. J. Good said back in 1965, developing artificial intelligence is a cognitive task. Such a system could potentially undergo recursive self-improvement, after which the human mind would not be able to match it. By coming up with revolutionary new technologies, such superintelligence could help eradicate war, disease, and poverty, so the creation of a general AI could be the biggest event yet.
However, there is concern that this may be the last event if we do not learn to align AI goals with human goals before it becomes superintelligent.
The question remains whether a general AI will ever be created. Some experts believe that its creation is guaranteed. While both of these possibilities are real, there is also the possibility that an artificial intelligence system could cause great harm intentionally or unintentionally. Today's research will help you better prepare and prevent such potential negative impacts by taking advantage of AI developments and preventing negative consequences.
Does AI representdanger
Most researchers agree that a super intelligent AI is unlikely to show human emotions like love or hate, and it cannot become benevolent or malevolent. When considering how AI could pose a threat, experts believe two scenarios are most likely:
- AI is designed to do something destructive: Autonomous weapons are AI systems programmed to kill. If misused, these weapons can easily lead to mass casu alties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that would also result in massive casu alties. This risk can also be associated with narrow artificial intelligence, but it increases as the level of AI sophistication increases and autonomy increases.
- AI is designed to do something useful, but it develops a destructive method to ensure that the goal is achieved: this will happen in the absence of complete alignment between the goal of the AI and the person, which is actually quite difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as quickly as possible, this can end up at least in a traffic violation, since the car will not do what you wanted, but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with an ambitious geoengineering project, it could damage our ecosystem as a side effect, and human attempts to stop it willbe seen as a threat to the task at hand.
As these examples show, the concern about advanced AI is not malice, but competence. Superintelligent AI will successfully achieve its goals, and if these goals are not aligned with ours, it will become a problem.
Many well-known people in the field of science and technology have recently expressed concern in the media and open letters about the dangers posed by AI.
The idea of successfully building general AI has been considered science fiction for decades. However, thanks to recent breakthroughs, many milestones in the development of AI have already been reached, and experts are serious about the possibility of super-intelligent activities in our lives. While some still believe that AI at the human level will not happen until a century from now, the majority of AI researchers at the Puerto Rico conference in 2015 suggested that it will happen before 2060.
Because AI can become smarter than any human, we have no accurate way to predict how it will behave. We cannot use previous technological developments as a basis, because we have never created anything that can consciously or unwittingly outwit us. The best example of what we could come across might be our own evolution. People now control the planet, not because we are the strongest, fastest or biggest, but because we are the smartest. But if we are no longer the smartest, are we sure that allstays under control? Perhaps, in the case of AI technology, the best way to win this race is not to impede its development, but to accelerate it by supporting security research.
Russia and AI
According to experts, the areas of development of artificial intelligence in Russia are primarily focused on mechanical engineering and autonomous systems. The country is calling for more action from academia, industry and the military to develop these technologies.
Currently, there are universities in Russia where the best specialists in the country in this field help to study the development of artificial intelligence - Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow State University, Higher School of Economics.
Russian artificial intelligence technologies are just beginning to develop. In doing so, the country mobilizes resources to dominate this area. Russia is funding AI projects focused on image processing, face, voice and data recognition, speech control, and the ability to use information from radar and satellites and information support for weapons.
The development of artificial intelligence in Russia is carried out, in particular, by companies such as Yandex, ABBYY, VisionLabs, N-Tech. Lab, Mivar.
Further development of AI
By the end of this decade, AI is expected to explode and its impact on business and society will increase. There is speculation that recent advances in this area will eventually allow progress towards the creation phase of general AI, and this will be the beginning of a genuineautonomy.
The market value of the AI industry by revenue in 2015 was estimated at $5 billion, which was significant for such an emerging sector. Exponential improvements and wider adoption are projected to more than double revenue to $12.5 billion by 2020.
AI software
Prospects for the development of artificial intelligence are due to the fact that software companies are pushing the boundaries of automation, search and social networks. Dubbed the brain of the machine, artificial intelligence is likely to enable automation in sectors such as autonomous vehicles and drones. AI software should create additional business opportunities and societal value.
For example, virtual assistants will offer expert assistance; smart robots or consultants in the fields of finance, insurance, law, media and journalism will provide instant research or conclusions; in he althcare, AI software will conduct medical diagnosis and provide assistance. The development of an artificial intelligence system in trade contributes to the optimization of actions and eliminates the possibility of irrational spending. Other benefits include a significant increase in the efficiency of R&D projects by reducing time to market, optimizing transport and supply chain networks, improving managementthrough more efficient decision-making processes.
Autonomous driving, although in its early stages of development, has also made tremendous progress. And the list is expanding, proving the inevitable impact of AI on our daily lives.
Will artificial intelligence replace humans
Unfortunately, technological unemployment is a by-product of progress.
Mechanized looms have reduced the number of artisan weavers, the tractor has left many people out of work, and robotics has reduced many workers in all types of production. Increasing AI integration will eventually lead to more productivity in the near term, resulting in less employment.
The concern is legitimate, but during this period, new developments in artificial intelligence will not be at such a stage of development that its widespread use will lead to mass layoffs. This technology will continue to be used in relatively niche applications and will not yet reach the critical mass level that threatens global employment.
However, many experts argue that global employment will not disappear. By automating tasks based on analysis, fine judgment and problem solving, AI could pose a threat to low-skill, conventional jobs in industries such as retail and financial services, and indirectly through the wider automation of automotive and some other industries. While it is difficult to predict the exact impact at this stage, it is estimated that 5% of jobs in these industries are formulaic in nature. It is expected that 50-75 million jobs globally, or 2% of the entire workforce worldwide, will be potentially eliminated by the advent of AI. Although this number is quite large, it loses its significance compared to the possibilities that the AI will create.
The outlook for artificial intelligence indicates that advances in AI and the subsequent surge in productivity will lead to many opportunities to improve the skills of employees and increase the ability to focus on creative aspects.
The age of AI is expected to increase the number of jobs that require a high level of personalization, creativity or skill - tasks that still require a person to solve.
Developments in the field of artificial intelligence will not only reduce costs by automating processes, but also maximize revenues by helping corporations introduce new categories of products and services.
In the medium term, the industry in question will eventually consolidate, given that a large number of startups are focused on AI. But as industry standards emerge, there will only be a few potential winners. Besides, where there are winners, there are also losers.
Winners:
- software companies;
- robotic automation processes;
- he althcare;
- high-tech manufacturing;
- selected service companies.
Losers:
- retail that will not use artificial intelligence;
- the automotive industry will not accept it.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is unique in that the technology powering the new industry has been completely democratized.
China, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India have already achieved significant success in various technology segments. In the coming years, these "new world" emerging markets will increase not only their share of inventions, but also their importance as a consumer of these technologies.
Partly thanks to the development of artificial intelligence systems, companies operating in emerging markets will be able to compete with companies in developed countries, effectively leveling the playing field for the new industrial revolution.
The development of AI is currently being driven by the exponential growth of computing power and the intelligent system of devices. Favorable supply factors such as low compute and storage costs, advanced algorithms, and increased availability of AI-based capabilities are also helping to develop the necessary conditions for progress.
Many companies are starting to see him as a creator, not a threat to jobs. One of the main obstacles to the development of artificial intelligence technologies is the belief that it islead to mass unemployment. Some jobs will be replaced by automated technologies. Despite this, there is growing recognition that AI is also creating job opportunities that did not exist before. Employers are increasingly looking for coders, programmers and technicians to monitor and maintain complex, artificially intelligent systems.
Given the benefits of AI, the rapid development of technology is not surprising. The business utility has translated into a huge number of companies that now use it in one form or another. Nevertheless, there is constant uncertainty about the prospects for the singularity - the moment when artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence. Now that AI can create new AI, creating a code of ethics for its further development is vital.
