What is the scripting method? Note that it can be used to assess the likely course of development of certain events, as well as to foresee the consequences of decisions made. For example, you can predict the feasibility of opening a children's entertainment center, calculate profits, and anticipate possible losses.
Meaning of technology
The scenario method is widely used in the activities of prognostic centers. Specialists who create options for the development of a certain situation identify the final results with a certain level of reliability. They are looking for a relationship with existing factors, forming a picture, trying to find those options that will help eliminate the cause of the problem. For example, you can assume the effectiveness of creating a beauty salon in a small town, and for this you should get acquainted with the prices for services, competitors' offers, etc.
Special Features
If the scenario method is used by specialists, then a clear and complete development can be drawn upsituation, identify a variety of options for managing it.
Using the scenario method makes it possible for timely search and awareness of identified hazards that may adversely affect the development of events and lead to unsuccessful management actions. For example, some people, before starting their own business, calculate the competition for the business in order to avoid bankruptcy.
History of Appearance
There is a version that the script method was first used by Herman Kahn. Kahn compared and evaluated various scenarios for the development of a particular situation, trying to find the only correct way to fix the problem. At first, the method of scenario analysis was only descriptive, then it began to be actively used in compiling quantitative and qualitative models of the situation. Today, not a single new enterprise opens without a preliminary calculation.
Efficiency of application
The scenario development method is concerned with the creation of project development technologies that will provide the most effective solution in specific situations. Where possible, this technology should minimize losses in the worst-case scenario.
Methods of implementation
Currently, the risk scenario method exists in several interpretations:
- gaining consensus;
- application of interaction matrices;
- repeating independent scenarios.
Coordination of expert opinions
The scenario method by obtaining a consensus opinion experts consider one of the varieties of the Delphi methodology. It is based on obtaining a common opinion of different groups of experienced experts on some important event in a certain area for a long-term period.
This method has certain disadvantages. First of all, among its disadvantages, we will name insufficient attention to the interconnection and interaction of various factors that influence the dynamics of the development of the situation, the change in the course of events.
Repetition of scenarios
Application of the scenario method involves the compilation of independent scenarios for individual aspects by different experts. This process is repeated after a certain time period. Then the most acceptable options are agreed, and all possible negative consequences are worked out when they are put into practice.
Among the main advantages of this approach is an in-depth analysis of the interaction of different aspects of the formation of the situation. Experts believe that its main shortcomings are the insufficient availability and incomplete methodological development of the procedure for coordinating various scenarios.
Gordon and Helmer developed their own scenario method. Their technique is now called the method of interaction matrices. Its essence lies in the fact that the potential relationship of events is determined taking into account all expert assessments. Thanks to the analysis of the situation carried out by specialists, linkingall possible combinations of events according to their strength, change in time, you can clarify the initial opinion about the probability of an event, look for optimal combinations for a positive resolution of the problem.
The disadvantage of this approach is the complexity in obtaining a huge number of estimates and carrying out the procedure for processing and adjusting them.
Features of calculations
You can calculate the likely directions of the system development using mathematical formulas. In the absence of managerial influences, it is assumed that the process of evolution of the system will proceed in the most probable direction.
Management impacts are proportional to the action of forces that can change the direction of the development trajectory. Of course, it is important to consider them with the obligatory consideration of certain restrictions that are imposed by both external and internal factors.
Such scenario development technology allows determining the state of the analyzed system in discrete time intervals.
Administrative influences contribute to the displacement of the state of the system in space, cause deviations from the planned development of the current situation. As a result of such a deviation, an additional search becomes necessary.
In some cases, control actions are aimed at maintaining stability, protecting against the development of the scenario along a negative path.
Results of applicationtechniques
Among the most important results of applying this method of scenarios, experts note the maximum awareness of the situation under consideration, as well as the specific features of its subsequent development.
Among the latest interesting proposals related to this technique, we highlight scenario forecasts.
Before proceeding to the direct creation of the scenario, the technique involves conducting a full analysis of the situation, determining the main acting forces, searching for relationships between the main factors, as well as performing the necessary detailing and structuring of events.
In this method, experts select variables. The key task set before them is to obtain a set of essential variables, which would be quite sufficient for a complete consideration of the analyzed situation.
The next step is to determine the appropriate scale for each of the selected variables. Only within the limits of the imposed restrictions will the measurements taken be considered. Due to the fact that in specific situations, in addition to quantitative variables, it is also expected to develop a verbal-numerical scale, which has numerical indicators, the task of experts is clearly more complicated.
With a meaningful description, you can significantly expand the number of variables, include those that will help reflect the nature of the situation.
In the case of using continuous variables, it is advisable to highlight certain values that will help to conduct a full-fledged analysis of the situation. In some cases, information about variablescan be presented as a thesaurus (list) reflecting basic information in the form of a descriptive quantitative assessment.
Conclusion
The main task of the scripting method is to find the key to understanding a certain problem. In the case of analyzing a certain situation, it is important to use all the optimal scenarios to resolve contradictions, to find the right option for the development of subsequent events.
In some cases, the prehistory of the formation of the analyzed situation is included in the scenario.
A distinctive feature of the methodology under consideration is its multivariance, the possibility of considering several alternative types of development of the situation at once, taking into account baseline scenarios.
When grouping scenarios into classes, a rational strategy of action for a specific situation is determined. Most of the scenarios are informative, which significantly increases the chances of an effective solution to the problem. Thanks to the use of modern computer equipment, the scenario method can be used with maximum efficiency and effectiveness.
Recently, the scripting method (the example and types were discussed above) is gaining more and more popularity.
