The concept of a hypothesis (Greek ὑπόθεσις - "base, assumption") is a scientific assumption, the truth of which has not yet been confirmed. A hypothesis can act as a method for the development of scientific knowledge (advancement and experimental verification of assumptions), as well as an element of the structure of a scientific theory. The creation of a hypothetical system in the process of carrying out certain mental operations allows a person to make the proposed structure of certain objects available for discussion and visible transformation. The forecasting process in relation to these objects becomes more specific and reasonable.
History of the development of the method of hypotheses
The emergence of the hypothetical method falls on an early stage in the development of ancient mathematical knowledge. In ancient Greece, mathematicians useddeductive thought experiment method for mathematical proofs. This method consisted in putting forward a hypothesis and then deriving consequences from it using analytical deduction. The purpose of the method was to test the original scientific guesses and assumptions. Plato develops his own analytic-synthetic method. At the first stage, the hypothesis put forward is subjected to preliminary analysis, at the second stage it is necessary to draw a logical chain of conclusions in the reverse order. If possible, the original assumption is considered confirmed.
While in the ancient science of science, the hypothetical method is used more in a hidden form, within the framework of other methods, at the end of the 17th century. the hypothesis begins to be used already as an independent method of scientific research. The method of hypotheses received the greatest development and strengthening of its status within the framework of scientific knowledge in the works of F. Engels.
Hypothetical thinking in childhood
The procedure for formulating hypotheses is one of the most important stages in the development of thinking in childhood. For example, the Swiss psychologist J. Piaget writes about this in his work Speech and Thinking of the Child (1923).
Examples of hypotheses for children can be found already at the initial stages of education at primary school age. So, children may be asked to answer the question of how the birds know the way to the south. In turn, the children begin to make assumptions. Examples of hypotheses: "they follow those birds in the flock that have already flown southbefore"; “orientated by plants and trees”; “feel warm air”, etc. Initially, the thinking of a 6-8-year-old child is egocentric, while in his conclusions the child is guided primarily by a simple intuitive justification. In turn, the development of hypothetical thinking makes it possible to remove this contradiction, facilitating the child's search for evidence in substantiating one or another of his answers. In the future, when moving to secondary school, the process of generating hypotheses becomes much more complicated and acquires new specifics - a more abstract character, reliance on formulas, etc.
Actively, tasks for the development of hypothetical thinking are used as part of the developmental education of children, built according to the system of D. B. Elkonina - V. V. Davydova.
However, regardless of the wording, a hypothesis is an assumption about the relationship of two or more variables in a certain context and is an indispensable component of a scientific theory.
Hypothesis in the system of scientific knowledge
Scientific theory cannot be formulated by direct inductive generalization of scientific experience. An intermediate link is a hypothesis that explains the totality of certain facts or phenomena. This is the most difficult stage in the system of scientific knowledge. Intuition and logic play the leading role here. Reasoning in itself is not yet evidence in science - it is only conclusions. Their truth can only be judged if the premises on which they are based are true. Taskthe researcher in this case consists in choosing the most important from a variety of empirical facts and empirical generalizations, as well as in an attempt to scientifically substantiate these facts.
Besides the compliance of the hypothesis with empirical data, it is also necessary that it meet such principles of scientific knowledge as reasonableness, economy and simplicity of thinking. The emergence of hypotheses is due to the uncertainty of the situation, the explanation of which is a topical issue for scientific knowledge. There may also be conflicting judgments at the empirical level. In order to resolve this contradiction, it is necessary to put forward certain hypotheses.
Specificity of hypothesis building
Due to the fact that the hypothesis is based on a certain assumption (prediction), it should be borne in mind that this is not yet reliable, but probable knowledge, the truth of which still needs to be proven. At the same time, it should cover all the facts related to this scientific field. As R. Carnap notes, if the researcher assumes that the elephant is an excellent swimmer, then we are not talking about one particular elephant, which he could observe in one of the zoos. In this case, the English article the takes place (in the Aristotelian sense - a plural meaning), that is, we are talking about a whole class of elephants.
Hypothesis systematizes existing facts, and also predicts the emergence of new ones. So, if we consider examples of hypotheses in science, we can single out the quantum hypothesis of M. Planck, put forward by him at the beginning of the 20th century. Thisthe hypothesis, in turn, led to the discovery of such fields as quantum mechanics, quantum electrodynamics, etc.
Main properties of the hypothesis
In the end, any hypothesis must be either confirmed or refuted. Thus, we are dealing with such properties of a scientific theory as verifiability and falsifiability.
The verification process is aimed at establishing the truth of this or that knowledge through their empirical verification, after which the research hypothesis is confirmed. An example is the atomistic theory of Democritus. It is also necessary to distinguish between assumptions that can be empirically tested and those that are, in principle, untestable. Thus, the statement: “Olya loves Vasya” is initially unverifiable, while the statement: “Olya says she loves Vasya” can be verified.
Verifiability can also be indirect, when a conclusion is made on the basis of logical conclusions from directly verified facts.
The process of falsification, in turn, is aimed at establishing the falsity of the hypothesis in the process of empirical verification. At the same time, it is important to note that the results of testing the hypothesis by themselves cannot refute it - an alternative hypothesis is needed for the further development of the studied field of knowledge. If there is no such hypothesis, it is impossible to reject the first hypothesis.
Hypothesis in experiment
Assumptions maderesearcher for experimental confirmation, are called experimental hypotheses. However, they are not necessarily based on theory. V. N. Druzhinin identifies three types of hypotheses in terms of their origin:
1. Theoretically sound - based on a theory (model of reality) and being forecasts, consequences of these theories.
2. Scientific experimental - also confirm (or refute) certain models of reality, however, not already formulated theories are taken as the basis, but the intuitive assumptions of the researcher ("Why not?..").
3. Empirical hypotheses formulated about a particular case. Examples of hypotheses: “Click a cow on the nose, she will wave her tail” (Kozma Prutkov). After the hypothesis is confirmed during the experiment, it acquires the status of a fact.
Common for all experimental hypotheses is such a property as operationalizability, that is, the formulation of hypotheses in terms of specific experimental procedures. In this context, three types of hypotheses can also be distinguished:
- hypotheses about the presence of a particular phenomenon (type A);
- hypotheses about the existence of a connection between phenomena (type B);
- hypotheses about the presence of a causal relationship between phenomena (type B).
Examples of type A hypotheses:
- Is there a “risk shift” phenomenon (a social psychology term) in group decision making?
- Is there life on Mars?
- Is it possible to transmit thoughts at a distance?
Also here can be attributed the periodic table of chemical elements of D. I. Mendeleev, on the basis of which the scientist predicted the existence of elements not yet discovered at that time. Thus, all hypotheses about facts and phenomena belong to this type.
Examples of type B hypotheses:
- All external manifestations of brain activity can be reduced to muscle movements (I. M. Sechenov).
- Extroverts are more risk-averse than introverts.
Accordingly, this type of hypotheses characterize certain connections between phenomena.
Examples of type B hypotheses:
- Centrifugal force balances gravity and reduces it to zero (K. E. Tsiolkovsky).
- The development of the child's fine motor skills contributes to the development of his intellectual abilities.
This type of hypotheses is based on independent and dependent variables, the relationship between them, as well as the levels of additional variables.
Hypothesis, disposition, sanction
Examples of these concepts are considered within the framework of legal knowledge as elements of a legal norm. It should also be noted that the very question of the structure of the rules of law in jurisprudence is the subject of discussion for both domestic and foreign scientific thought.
A hypothesis in jurisprudence is a part of the norm that determines the conditions for the operation of this norm, on the facts under which it begins to function.
A hypothesis within the law can express aspects such as the place / time of the occurrence of a certain event; the subject's belonging tocertain state; terms of entry into force of the legal norm; the state of he alth of the subject, which affects the possibility of exercising one or another right, etc. An example of the hypothesis of the rule of law: "A child of unknown parents, found on the territory of the Russian Federation, becomes a citizen of the Russian Federation." Accordingly, the place of the incident and the belonging of the subject to a particular state are indicated. In this case, a simple hypothesis holds. In law, examples of such hypotheses are quite common. A simple hypothesis is based on one circumstance (fact) under which it comes into play. Also, the hypothesis can be complex when it comes to two or more circumstances. In addition, there is an alternative type of hypotheses, involving actions of a different nature, equated by law to each other for one reason or another.
The disposition is aimed at securing the rights and obligations of participants in legal relations, indicating their possible and proper behavior. Like a hypothesis, a disposition can have a simple, complex, or alternative form. In a simple disposition, we are talking about one legal consequence; in the complex - about two or more, advancing simultaneously or in combination; in an alternative disposition - about consequences of different nature (“either-or”).
The sanction, in turn, is part of the norm, indicating coercive measures to ensure rights and obligations. In many cases, sanctions target specific types of legal liability. From the point of view of certainty, there are two types of sanctions: absolutely definite andrelatively certain. In the first case, we are talking about legal consequences that do not provide for any alternatives (recognition of invalidity, transfer of ownership, fines, etc.). In the second case, several solutions may be considered (for example, in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, this may be a fine or imprisonment; the scope of the sentence is, for example, from 5 to 10 years, etc.). Sanctions can also be punitive and remedial.
Analysis of the structure of the legal norm
Accordingly, the structure "hypothesis - disposition - sanction" (examples of a legal norm) can be represented as follows: HYPOTHESIS ("if..") → DISPOSITION ("then..") → SANCTION ("otherwise.. "). However, in reality, all three elements at the same time in the rule of law are quite rare. More often we are dealing with a two-term structure, which can be of two types:
1. Regulatory norms of law: hypothesis-disposition. In turn, they can be divided into binding, prohibiting and empowering.
2. Protective norms of law: a hypothesis-sanction. There can also be three types: absolutely definite, relatively definite and alternative (see the classification of sanctions).
In this case, the hypothesis does not have to be at the beginning of the legal norm. Compliance with a certain structure distinguishes a rule of law from an individual prescription (designed for a single action), as well as from general principles of law (not highlighting hypotheses and sanctions that regulaterelations without much certainty).
Let's consider examples of hypotheses, dispositions, sanctions in articles. Regulatory norms of law: “Able-bodied children who have reached the age of 18 must take care of disabled parents” (Constitution of the Russian Federation, part 3, art. 38). The first part of the norm concerning able-bodied children who have reached the age of 18 is a hypothesis. It, as befits a hypothesis, indicates the conditions for the operation of the norm - the order of its entry into force. An indication of the need to care for disabled parents is a disposition that fixes a certain obligation. Thus, the elements of a legal norm in this case are a hypothesis and a disposition - an example of a binding norm.
“The contractor who has improperly performed the work is not en titled to refer to the fact that the customer did not exercise control and supervision over their implementation, except …” (Civil Code of the Russian Federation, part 4, art. 748). These are examples of the hypothesis and disposition of the forbidding norm.
Protective norms of law: “His parents are responsible for the harm caused to a minor under the age of 14…” (Civil Code of the Russian Federation, part 1, art. 1073). This is a structure: a hypothesis-sanction, an example of an absolutely definite legal norm. This type represents the only precise condition (harm caused by a minor) in combination with the only precise sanction (responsibility of parents). Hypotheses in protective legal norms point to violations.
An example of an alternative legal norm: “Fraud committed by a group of persons by prior conspiracy … is punishable by a fine of up to 300 thousand rubles, or in the amountwages or other income of the convicted person for a period of up to 2 years, or compulsory work for a period of up to 480 hours …”(Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Article 159, paragraph 2); “Fraud committed by a person using his official position … is punishable by a fine in the amount of 100,000 to 500,000 rubles” (Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Article 159, paragraph 3). Accordingly, the facts of fraud in question are examples of scientific hypotheses, and certain alternatives to liability for these crimes are examples of sanctions.
Hypothesis within the framework of psychological research
If we are talking about a psychological scientific study based on the methods of mathematical statistics, then the hypothesis in this case must meet, first of all, such requirements as clarity and conciseness. As E. V. Sidorenko, thanks to these hypotheses, the researcher in the course of calculations, in fact, gets a clear picture of what he has established.
It is customary to single out null and alternative statistical hypotheses. In the first case, we are talking about the absence of differences in the studied characteristics, according to the formula Х1-Х2=0. In turn, X1, X2are the values of the features used for comparison. Accordingly, if the goal of our study is to prove the statistical significance of differences between feature values, then we want to disprove the null hypothesis.
In the case of the alternative hypothesis, the statistical significance of the differences is asserted. Thus, the alternative hypothesis is the statement that wetrying to prove. It is also called an experimental hypothesis. It should be noted that in some cases, the researcher, on the contrary, may seek to prove the null hypothesis if this is consistent with the goals of his experiment.
The following examples of hypotheses in psychology can be given:
Null hypothesis (Н0): The trend of increasing (decreasing) feature when moving from one sample to another is random.
Alternative hypothesis (Н1): The trend of increasing (decreasing) feature when moving from one sample to another is not random.
Suppose that a group of children with a high level of anxiety were given a series of trainings to reduce this anxiety. Measurements of this indicator were made before and after the trainings, respectively. It is necessary to establish whether the difference between these measurements is a statistically significant indicator. The null hypothesis (Н0) will have the following form: the trend of reducing the level of anxiety in the group after the trainings is random. In turn, the alternative hypothesis (Н1) will sound like this: the trend of reducing the level of anxiety in the group after the training is not accidental.
After applying one or another mathematical criterion (for example, the G-test of signs), the researcher can conclude that the resulting “shift” is statistically significant / insignificant in relation to the trait under study (anxiety level). If the indicator is statistically significant, the alternative hypothesis is accepted, and the null one, respectively,is discarded. Otherwise, on the contrary, the null hypothesis is accepted.
Also in psychology, there may be a connection (correlation) between two or more variables, which also reflects the research hypothesis. Example:
Н0: the correlation between the student's attention concentration indicator and the indicator of success in completing the control task does not differ from 0.
Н1: the correlation between the student's attention concentration indicator and the indicator of success in completing the control task is statistically significantly different from 0.
In addition, examples of scientific hypotheses in psychological research that require statistical confirmation may relate to the distribution of a trait (empirical and theoretical level), the degree of consistency of changes (when comparing two traits or their hierarchies), etc.
Hypothesis in sociology
For example, if we are talking about the failure of students in a university, it is necessary to analyze its causes. What hypotheses can the sociologist put forward in this case? A. I. Kravchenko gives the following examples of hypotheses in a sociological study:
- Poor quality of teaching in a number of subjects.
- Distracting university students from the educational process for additional earnings.
- Low level of exactingness of the administration of the university to the progress and discipline of students.
- Costs of competitive admission to a university.
It is important that examples of scientific hypotheses meet the requirements of clarity andconcreteness, relating only directly to the subject of research. The literacy of formulating hypotheses, as a rule, determines the literacy of the choice of research methods. This requirement is the same for the construction of hypotheses in all forms of scientific sociological work - whether it is a hypothesis within the framework of a seminar or a hypothesis of a thesis. An example of low academic performance at a university, in the case of choosing a hypothesis about the negative impact of part-time students, can be considered within the framework of a simple survey of respondents. If the hypothesis about the low quality of teaching is chosen, it is necessary to use an expert survey. In turn, if we are talking about the costs of competitive selection, we can apply the method of correlation analysis - when comparing the performance indicators of students of a given university with different admission conditions.
