All events in the political sphere are connected and have certain causes. They are associated with social, economic and other factors. To make a prediction in the political sphere, you need to conduct the right analysis. It has a certain structure, involves the use of special techniques. How political analysis is conducted will be discussed later.
General definition
Political analysis is a symbiosis of different methods that allow you to explore certain political events. On the basis of the study, it turns out to predict how the situation will develop in the future. If you make the right assumptions about the future political situation, you can make the right decisions, which will be highly competent.
Political analysis in Russia and elsewhere is viewed from two different perspectives. The first approach assumes that this is a kind of ordinary logicalresearch. It is used to analyze political problems of a fundamental type.
The second approach recognizes the duality of the presented study. As a result, theoretical and applied analysis is distinguished. As a result of such activities, a conclusion is given.
The task of analyzing the political environment is to choose a strategy that will be based on certain, reasonable criteria and goals. It allows you to highlight the most promising areas that will improve social conditions in the future.
The subjects of the presented analytical activities are:
- divisions of power structures whose competence includes political research;
- think tanks developing new methodologies and testing them in real political conditions;
- private research centers that serve the needs of one or more customers;
- Media that are able to process the information coming to them accordingly.
Research lines
The process of political analysis is carried out in 5 critical directions at once:
- Peculiarities of existing strategic problems.
- The result after the past and current direction in the political sphere.
- Determining the degree of influence of these results on the ability to solve existing problems.
- New or existing alternatives in the long term, their likely consequences.
- Choosing strategic alternatives to help solve the problem.
Techniques
There are different methods of political analysis. The main ones are:
- Problem structuring method. Existing proposals in this case are questioned. This is how it turns out to form political decisions at the initial stage of decision-making.
- Prediction. These are methods of political analysis that provide knowledge, relevant to the current situation, about upcoming events. Such conditions can develop in the field of economy, society or directly in politics. They are very likely to occur if one of the planning alternatives is adopted.
- Recommendations. This approach provides the analyst with knowledge that can be directly applied in the course of making a strategic decision.
- Monitoring. This approach provides insights into policies and trends. Based on the monitoring of external and internal conditions, the analyst can choose the best direction for further actions.
- Evaluation. The method allows obtaining information on the degree of achievement of the set goals of different political courses. This allows you to evaluate the quality of decisions made.
- Reasonable judgments of eyewitnesses. The judgments of some observers are confirmed by the judgments of other subjects. Therefore, this technique is also called comparative political analysis.
- Content analysis. Allows you to explore and draw conclusions about the features andcharacteristics of texts in documents of a political type.
Analysis steps
So, the structure of political analysis includes several mandatory stages. At the preliminary stage of the study, a meta-analysis of the mindset of the performer is carried out. It can be linear or non-linear. Analysts with the first type of mindset can solve a problem by moving sequentially through the study of the problem. They perform logical tasks step by step, which allows them to achieve the goal.
Analysts with a non-linear mindset move from one stage of analysis to another in a chaotic manner. They can move in two directions at the same time. Different parts of the problem become more and more clear to them. The information obtained takes its place in the research scheme. The choice of approach depends solely on the preferences of the analyst.
The first step is to identify the existing problem. For this, information is collected. The problem is analyzed on its basis. Data collection is carried out using one of two methods. The first involves conducting documentary research, and the second - field research. This allows you to explore the problem from different angles. Documentary research studies the relevant literature, articles in scientific and professional journals, books, dissertations, etc.
Field research involves conducting surveys, researching unpublished reports, other documents.
During the political analysis, thestep by step progress towards the goal. Once the problem is identified, the next step begins. At the second stage, ways of solving it are analyzed. To do this, the evaluation criteria are selected, the specification of alternative political courses is carried out. You also need to predict the consequences of each alternative. Using the selected criteria, the prospects for each of the possible directions are evaluated.
The third step is to develop recommendations for next steps. They are brought to the users of the analysis in the appropriate form. The information must be understandable so that all persons involved in the implementation of the selected alternative can fulfill their duties.
Scientific tools
Socio-political analysis allows solving many problems of society. He uses special tools for this:
- Systematic. The approach must be systematized in order to track objects in their totality. It is necessary to identify connections and interactions between them.
- Study of the functional structure. Groups of objects have corresponding connections; they interact within the system according to certain laws.
- Comparative analysis. Allows you to identify analogues, compare some phenomena, find contradictions. The objects that fall within its area of competence have certain differences. Phenomena and events are tracked in dynamics.
- Statistical and mathematical approach. Allow you to present the current situation in the form of diagrams, diagrams and graphs. With their helpbuild models and represent socio-political phenomena.
Philosophical signs
The foundations of political analysis are based on two main philosophical principles. They are actually based on them, and also implemented in practice.
These principles should be applied during the analysis:
- All political phenomena are interconnected. This is the main statement that affects the results of the study. Such links can be determined in the short term or in the long term. It is necessary to determine whether they are significant, if not, such connections are swept aside and not used in the course of the analysis. All important aspects are assessed from a position, whether they have a direct or indirect impact on the situation. It is necessary to investigate both random and reasonable events, internal and external connections.
- Development happens all the time. This principle is also called historicism. All phenomena, including political ones, are constantly developing. This principle is also called systematic. Cycles develop in a spiral. Recession followed by rise.
Types of analysis
Performing political analysis for a society or its separate category, its different forms are used. The choice depends on the objectives of the study. The most common types of analysis are:
- diachronous;
- data;
- dispersive;
- documents;
- cluster;
- cohorts;
- contextual;
- correlation;
- multidimensional;
- multifactor;
- synchronous;
- system;
- structural.
Data analysis is an empirical approach to the study of political phenomena. Conducted to obtain primary information, as well as to reveal some of the links between events and analyzed data.
Among the approaches to political analysis, we should consider the diachronic type of research. It considers events, processes in their time range. This allows you to determine the genesis of the objects under study with the designation of a specific chronology of events.
Dispersion analysis was proposed by R. Fischer. It allows you to track discrepancies that occur systematically between the consequences of changes in the political sphere that occur under certain circumstances.
Research of documentation is one of the most widespread in the political sphere. It provides the most accurate and complete information that an analyst processes.
Cluster analysis is a method that involves grouping data about phenomena and events, combining homogeneous objects according to certain classes. This allows you to get an idea of the big picture by adding homogeneous elements into a single system.
Other approaches
Analysis of a political system can be done with a cohort study. These are separate groups of society. They are studied to fix and determine the distinctive features, political actions, behavior in certain circumstances. Based on the results of this analysis,long-term solutions.
Contextual analysis is used when there is a need to evaluate the characteristic features of a phenomenon in the political sphere. A comparison is also made in context with other political objects.
Components
Political analysis has three main components. For them, research is being done. These include:
- Research on the real situation in politics.
- Forecast of further development of this situation.
- Making decisions based on analysis.
Forecasting in the field of political relations is an important aspect of decision-making and control in the long term. To do this, a comprehensive analysis is carried out, which allows you to track a set of options for achieving your goals. Specific tasks are set in practical political activity. For this, a political forecast is made, which concerns the likelihood of the development of certain events, as well as their final result.
In general, forecasting is a scientifically based calculation of probability. It is carried out in order to identify prospects, possible states and consequences of making certain decisions. This is a search for ways of development and trends in the aspect of a particular phenomenon. Forecasting allows you to consider all alternatives, choose the most suitable direction from them.
In the course of such work, not only the development prospects are determined, but also the timing of the tasks. Forecast and prediction are non-identical phenomena. They have different approaches todesignation of future events. Forecasting is based on the study of a large number of variables. Also this procedure is different from planning.
Forecast in the political sphere
Features of forecasting in the field of politics are based on the anticipatory reflection of the object of study in the course of scientific knowledge. Also, this procedure reflects the prospects for the development of a particular phenomenon. Such judgments are justified, supported by knowledge of the patterns of their development.
During the forecast, the situation is simulated by creating a mental image of the object of study. This can be society, economics, science, technology, and so on.
When developing a forecast, two main steps are taken. They refer to the problem-target criterion:
- Search forecast. Allows you to determine the possible states of the object of analysis in the future. This is a projection of modern events in the long term, their logical conclusion and consequences.
- Forecast is normative. It is carried out in order to find directions, opportunities, as well as resources to achieve specific goals.
Policy forecasting can have different horizons. The scope of such a review is determined based on the objectives of the study. Forecasting can be done for the near, medium and long term.
