World news from time to time, talking about events in the poorest countries on the planet (Rwanda, Cambodia, Somalia), use the term "humanitarian catastrophe". The viewer's imagination paints a grim picture, supported by documentary footage from the scene. Naked children with swollen bellies and ulcers on the skin, adults emaciated to protruding bones, infirm old people, helpless and exhausted lying right on the ground …
What is a humanitarian disaster and why is it happening
In addition to natural causes such as drought or other natural disasters, there are other factors that cause such dire consequences. On TV screens, some people flicker, most often dressed in camouflage, they wave machine guns and bazookas, chant something belligerently and shoot at someone.
A humanitarian catastrophe is a phenomenon that in the modern world is most often associated withcivil war. Its main feature is the emergence of a threat to the life of a significant part of the population of the region covered by it. Most often, the situation looks like conflicts are taking place on interethnic or interfaith grounds, but a careful study of the circumstances, as a rule, turns out that the main reason is a clash of economic interests, and the ethnic or religious factor is just an excuse skillfully used by invisible players.
War and destruction of habitual way of life
A humanitarian catastrophe is the result of the destruction of the basis on which the life of the state or its part is built. The work of enterprises is stopped, sowing or harvesting work is not carried out, the energy infrastructure is seriously disrupted, state authorities, he alth care and education systems cannot fully function. This is what happened in besieged Leningrad. Similar phenomena took place during the famine in the Volga region and Ukraine. The inter-ethnic armed strife in Yugoslavia, the Holocaust (the ethnic extermination of the Jewish population during the Second World War), the massacres of Armenians in Sumgayit and many other sad events of the 20th century also fall under the term "humanitarian catastrophe". Its symbol is the notorious "man with a gun", a faithful companion of revolutions and upheavals.
Most recently it was hard to imagine that something like this could happen in Ukraine, a country, of course, not rich, but quite peaceful, in which a certain political balance has been formed, andrevolutionary sentiments were alien to the majority of the population.
What modern history teaches us
History teaches us first of all that it teaches nothing. And secondly, it clearly demonstrates that the guarantee of prosperity or at least the well-being of any state is long-term political stability. Examples of "color" revolutions, liberation wars, overthrows of "dictatorial-totalitarian" regimes in Iraq, Libya and many other countries eloquently indicate that after them chaos arises in the country and, as a result, economic stagnation. A civil war in a new democratic country can go on for years, resulting in a humanitarian catastrophe. This does not concern the organizers of revolutions at all, they have other concerns.
The situation in Ukraine, despite the predominantly European appearance of its citizens, painfully resembles what is happening in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Libya. Private militias, controlled by local oligarchs, have emerged. Armed people consider themselves military men and reserve the right to establish orders by force that seem fair to them.
Ukraine on the Eastern Front
The humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine (so far only in its eastern part) occurred for the same reasons that it always occurs. A war has begun, which the current government calls an operation, and an anti-terrorist one at that. When covering events, journalistsRussian, as well as Ukrainian, usually focus on the emotional side of the material, showing the bodies of the dead (including women, children and the elderly) or showing the funeral of "heroic defenders of the country's unity." Residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, having fled from destroyed houses, become refugees, they find shelter in Russia or in other regions of Ukraine. The media are trying to hide the real scale of the disaster, as well as military losses. At the same time, the state, in addition to the human lives lost by the war, suffers huge material losses. It is quite likely that the humanitarian catastrophe will soon spread to the rest of the country, even in the case of the most favorable option for Kyiv to end hostilities.
Crimea
If we ignore the indignant cries of Ukrainian national patriots, it remains only to state the fact that the separation of the peninsula occurred for quite legitimate reasons. Centripetal moods were characteristic mainly of the ethnically Russian population during the entire period of Ukraine's independence. "Maidan" became a serious reason to think about the direction of movement of the whole country, and the presence of Russian troops ruled out the possibility of an attempt to "demonstrative flogging" of the recalcitrant.
Before the referendum, supporters of unity and indivisibility predicted an imminent humanitarian catastrophe in Crimea based on many economic factors. It pointed to the impending blockade of the peninsula, the impossibility of delivering food, its inability to provide itself with water, electricity and gas, the unprofitability of the economy, expressed inthe traditional subsidization of the budget and many other reasons why the indignant population of the autonomous region will soon be asked to return to Ukraine. That did not happen. The reason is the same - the war. Or rather, its presence in Ukraine and its absence in Crimea. Everything else, of course, is a problem, but a solvable one.
What's next?
If we consider the most optimistic scenario in Ukraine, then there is reason to believe that official Kyiv sees it as consisting of the following points:
- Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics liquidated, their defenders expelled or destroyed.
- Assistance has been received from the European Union and the United States, with the help of which it is possible to neutralize the consequences of hostilities and reduce trade turnover with the Russian Federation.
- Western markets are open for Ukrainian goods, Europeans happily line up to buy them.
- Under pressure from the EU and the US, Russia agrees to sell gas at a symbolic price.
- Under the same pressure, Crimea returns to where it came from. Sevastopol residents joyfully greet the parade of the Ukrainian army.
- There will be no humanitarian disaster.
History will show which of these expectations will come true…
